Markets are said to hate uncertainty and that is what they got from the first round of voting in Indonesia this week. Sure enough, after the Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), fronted by Jakarta Mayor Joko Widodo, failed to pull en0ugh legislative ballots to avoid running as a coalition in the July presidential ballot, the rupiah currency declined, as did the Indonesia stock index until a Friday uptick.
With the reformist mayor, known as Jokowi, the PDI-P was seen as having the closest thing to a popular horse in the race. Party elder and former President Megawati had deferred to Jokowi, 52, as a hot ticket back to power after two terms under SB Yudhoyono of the Democratic Party (no struggle). But with Indonesia's complicated mechanism for winnowing out presidential contenders, PDI-P fell just short of getting a clean berth. That presumably would have allowed for a more clear-cut agenda to move things along in Indonesia's clog-prone national administration.
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Now Jokowi, along with whatever opponents also can sufficiently hybridize to meet the support threshold., will contest the race having not only to please a broad electorate but to satisfy inter-party demands. (This usually means bartering cabinet posts.) Avoiding that fate is no guarantee of strong governance–it was hoped that Yudhoyono, aka SBY, would be decisive in his second term having received such a mandate, but he hasn't been.
Megawati's heir wants to avoid her fate. (Photo: Wikipedia)
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